Moving Averages

Moving averages are trend-following indicators that smooth out price action by creating a constantly updated average price over a specific period, appearing as lines directly on the price chart as upper indicators. These versatile tools serve multiple purposes – identifying trend direction, providing dynamic support and resistance levels, and generating trading signals through crossovers. For option traders, moving averages are indispensable for determining market bias (bullish above, bearish below), timing entries when price pulls back to averages, and selecting appropriate strikes beyond these key levels. Understanding the different types and applications of moving averages forms the foundation of technical analysis for successful option selling.

Types of Moving Averages

The two main varieties and their characteristics:

Simple Moving Average (SMA)

  • Equal weight to all periods
  • True mathematical average
  • Slower to react to price changes
  • Less prone to whipsaws
  • Better for major trend identification

Calculation: Sum of closing prices / Number of periods

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

  • More weight to recent prices
  • Faster reaction to price changes
  • More responsive to new information
  • More trading signals
  • Better for short-term trading

Key Difference: EMAs turn faster at trend changes.

Common Moving Average Periods

Standard periods and their uses:

Short-Term Averages

8/10 EMA: Ultra-short trends

  • Scalping entries
  • Very sensitive
  • Many false signals

20/21 EMA/SMA: Monthly trend

  • Most popular short-term
  • Good for entries
  • Balance of signals

Intermediate Averages

50 SMA: Quarterly trend

  • Institutional favorite
  • Major support/resistance
  • Trend confirmation

Long-Term Averages

200 SMA: Yearly trend

  • Ultimate trend definer
  • Bull/bear market line
  • Major psychological level

Moving Averages as Support/Resistance

Dynamic levels that adapt to price:

Trend Support

In uptrends, MAs act as support:

  • Price pulls back to MA
  • Bounces higher
  • Perfect put selling opportunity
  • Place strikes below MA

Trend Resistance

In downtrends, MAs act as resistance:

  • Price rallies to MA
  • Fails and turns down
  • Perfect call selling opportunity
  • Place strikes above MA

The stronger the trend, the more reliable the MA.

MA Trading Signals

Key signals from these upper indicators:

Price vs MA Position

Bullish: Price > MA

  • Upward bias confirmed
  • Focus on selling puts
  • Buy pullbacks to MA
  • Avoid fighting trend

Bearish: Price < MA

  • Downward bias confirmed
  • Focus on selling calls
  • Sell rallies to MA
  • Avoid fighting trend

Golden Cross and Death Cross

Golden Cross (Major Bullish):

  • 50 MA crosses above 200 MA
  • Long-term trend turns up
  • Multi-month bull market
  • Aggressive put selling

Death Cross (Major Bearish):

  • 50 MA crosses below 200 MA
  • Long-term trend turns down
  • Multi-month bear market
  • Aggressive call selling

Multiple Moving Average Systems

Using multiple MAs together:

Triple MA System

20, 50, 200 Configuration:

  • All aligned up = Strong uptrend
  • All aligned down = Strong downtrend
  • Mixed = Consolidation/transition
  • Trade with alignment

MA Ribbon

Multiple EMAs (5, 8, 13, 20, etc.):

  • Expansion shows trend strength
  • Compression warns of reversal
  • Visual trend representation
  • Entry/exit guidance

MA Envelope/Bands

Percentage bands around MA:

  • 2-3% bands common
  • Overbought at upper band
  • Oversold at lower band
  • Mean reversion trades

Moving Averages for Options

Specific applications for option traders:

Strike Selection

Put Selling:

  • Identify support MA
  • Sell strikes below MA
  • Extra protection buffer
  • Higher probability

Call Selling:

  • Identify resistance MA
  • Sell strikes above MA
  • Technical barrier
  • Time decay advantage

Entry Timing

MA Touch Entry:

  1. Wait for price to touch MA
  2. Confirm bounce/rejection
  3. Enter option position
  4. Stop if MA breaks

MA Reclaim Entry:

  1. Price breaks below MA
  2. Quickly reclaims above
  3. False breakdown
  4. Sell puts aggressively

MA Strategies for Different Timeframes

Matching MAs to option duration:

Weekly Options

  • 8 or 10 EMA hourly chart
  • 20 EMA daily chart
  • Quick signals needed
  • Tight stops required

Monthly Options

  • 20 and 50 SMA daily
  • More reliable signals
  • Wider stops acceptable
  • Less management

LEAPS

  • 50 and 200 SMA weekly
  • Major trend focus
  • Rare adjustments
  • Position trades

Advanced MA Techniques

Sophisticated applications:

Dynamic Position Sizing

  • Far from MA = Normal size
  • Near MA = Reduce size
  • At MA = Minimum size
  • Past MA = No position

MA Slope Analysis

  • Steep up = Strong trend, sell puts
  • Flat = No trend, iron condors
  • Steep down = Strong trend, sell calls
  • Slope change = Trend weakening

Volume at MA

  • High volume MA test = Significant
  • Low volume MA test = Suspect
  • Confirms importance
  • Guides position size

Common MA Mistakes

Too Many MAs: Clutters chart Wrong MA Type: SMA for scalping Ignoring Slope: Flat MA = no trend Fixed Settings: Adjust to market

Building an MA System

Systematic approach:

Daily Routine

  1. Check price vs key MAs
  2. Note MA slopes
  3. Identify MA tests
  4. Plan entries at MAs
  5. Set strikes beyond MAs

MA Trend Following

Rules:

  • Price > 20 MA > 50 MA = Only puts
  • Price < 20 MA < 50 MA = Only calls
  • MAs mixed = Stay out
  • Exit if structure breaks

Performance Tracking

  • Win rate by MA setup
  • Best MA for entries
  • Optimal distance from MA
  • MA break statistics

MA Special Situations

Unique applications:

Gap and MA

  • Gap above MA, holds = Bullish
  • Gap below MA, fails = Bearish
  • MA as magnet
  • High probability setups

MA Convergence

  • Multiple MAs converge
  • Big move coming
  • Direction uncertain
  • Prepare both sides

News and MA

  • Bad news, holds MA = Bullish
  • Good news, fails MA = Bearish
  • MA more important
  • Trade accordingly

Key Takeaways

Moving Averages:

  • Upper indicators on price chart
  • Smooth price to show trend
  • Dynamic support/resistance
  • Multiple types and periods
  • Foundation of technical analysis
  • Guide entries and strikes
  • Simple but powerful

Moving averages are the option seller’s roadmap, clearly showing trend direction and providing objective levels for entries and strike selection. These upper indicators remove emotion from trading by defining whether to be bullish or bearish based on simple price position. Master moving averages to build a solid foundation for all other technical analysis. Remember: the trend is your friend, and moving averages show you who your friends are.